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18/11/2008
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Real Instituto Elcano
20 November 2008
 
 
 
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Chaos, International Terrorism and Beyond: A Strategic Prognosis(ARI)
ARI 146/2008 - 11/11/2008
Xavier Raufer
During the historical interval from 1989 to 2001, the nature of the enemy has changed. Previously, the enemy was known, stable and familiar. Today the enemy is evasive, strange and incomprehensible –but just as dangerous, if not more so–.

The Threat of Jihadist Terrorism in Germany (ARI)
ARI 142/2008 - 6/11/2008
Guido Steinberg
German internal security is threatened by three distinct terrorist phenomena: organised Jihadists, independent Jihadists and the new Internationalists.

After the Madrid Bombings: Internal Security Reforms and the Prevention of Global Terrorism in Spain (WP)
WP 40/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 14/10/2008
Fernando Reinares
At the time of the Madrid bombings on 11 March 2004, Spain was equipped with well-developed internal security structures that were highly efficient in the fight against terrorism. However, they were not as well adapted to dealing with the challenges of terrorism related to al-Qaeda.

Suicide Attacks in Algeria: Al-Qaeda in the Land of the Islamic Maghreb (AQLIM) (ARI)
ARI 100/2008 - 12/9/2008
Anneli Botha
Algeria has been confronted by 17 suicide attacks over a period of 16 months. Despite the devastation of these attacks, it is also clear that the Salafist Group of Combat and Preaching (GSPC)/Al-Qaeda in the Land of Islamic Maghreb (AQLIM) grows in its sophistication, possibly to increasingly market itself as al-Qaeda’s representative in the region.

Remarks by Ambassador Eduardo Aguirre: ‘Radical Islamism in and from the North of Africa and the Horn of Africa’
(Translated from Spanish) - 8/7/2008
Eduardo Aguirre
Remarks by the U.S Ambassador to Spain and Andorra Eduardo Aguirre at the International Conference “Islamic Radicalization In and From North and the Horn of Africa: Implications for European and Transnational Counterterrorism”, co-organised by the Elcano Royal Institute, the U.S Department of State and the University Rey Juan Carlos University.

In Spain's interest: A Committed Foreign Policy
(Translated from Spanish) - 2/7/2008
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
An address by the Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero at the Prado Museum (Madrid) on 16 June 2008 organised by the Elcano Royal Institute, with the collaboration of the following Spanish institutions: CIDOB Foundation, FRIDE, ICEI and INCIPE. (This text is also available in French: Dans l’intérêt de l’Espagne: une politique extérieure engagée).

The Mujahedin in Nagorno-Karabakh: A Case Study in the Evolution of Global Jihad (WP)
WP 20/2008 - 9/5/2008
Michael Taarnby
The current volume of publications dealing with Islamist militancy and terrorism defies belief in terms of its contents. This paper is a modest attempt to direct more attention and interest towards the much overlooked sub-field of historical research within Jihadi studies.

Afghanistan and Lebanon: Assessment of the Jihadist Risk to Spain (WP)
WP 8/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 11/3/2008
Miguel Luparelli Mathieu, José Antonio Mathés and Andrés Montero Gómez
This analysis is based on a game theory model which assumes the premise that the behaviour of Jihadist groups (taken generally, and al-Qaeda in particular) and of States is rational and responds to strategic choices. It begins with an introduction to the context which situates Spain and global Jihadist groups on opposing sides of the game board of strategic interests. There follows an analysis of each of the scenarios and their implications in the strategies of Jihadist organisations, as well as their influence on Spanish foreign policy and international security policy decisions.

Fatah al-Islam: Anthropological Perspectives on Jihadi Culture (WP)
WP 6/2008 - 12/2/2008
Michael Taarnby and Lars Hallundbaek
This paper argues that the Jihadi culture of Fatah al-Islam is an appropriated and non-traditional culture which must be defended at all costs by its followers precisely because it is an artificial entity.

Will America’s New Counterinsurgency Doctrine Defeat al-Qaeda? (WP)
WP 1/2008 - 10/1/2008
Sebestyén L. v. Gorka
This paper discusses the concept of global insurgency and deals with the existing canon of COIN theory and case studies. It also looks at the connection between the practice of counterinsurgency and the broader world of politics and war–fighting. The document close with a discussion as to exactly how much the ‘Long War’ is in fact understandable as a form of COIN and whether al–Qaeda is truly an insurgent organisation.

A Critical Analysis of Recent Developments in UK Counter-terrorism Policies and the Implications of the Car Bomb Incidents of June 2007 (ARI)
ARI 115/2007 - 29/10/2007
Frank Gregory
This ARI reviews the recent developments in the UK’s Counter-terrorism policies and the new Prime Minister’s 25 July ‘Statement on Security’ within the wider context of the response to multi-faceted CT challenges.

Al-Qaeda’s Threat to Denmark (ARI)
ARI 112/2007 - 23/10/2007
Michael Taarnby
This analysis concerns Denmark as a potential target for al-Qaeda. It seeks to define and understand the nature of the threat by tracking the historical and current connections between Denmark and al-Qaeda.

Belgium and Counterterrorism Policy in the Jihadi Era (1986-2007) (WP)
WP 40/2007 - 20/9/2007
Rik Coolsaet and Tanguy Struye de Swielande
This working paper explores how Belgium reacted to the growth of this new form of terrorism from its early signs in the 1980s until today. Next, it analyses the measures taken by the Belgian law enforcement apparatus since 9/11. Finally, it assesses Belgian specificities in combating jihadi terrorism.

A quantitative study of the terrorist activities linked to al-Qaeda in Iraq (ARI)
ARI 79/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 5/9/2007
Fernando Reinares, Olga Arroyo and Raquel Fontecha
This ARI analyses where and how the attacks related to al-Qaeda in Iraq take place, as well as which are the preferred targets and the actual victims of this terrorist violence.

 
 
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